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The sleepiness equation

Apparently, the scientists at AWAKE — a British “sleep management consultancy” — have developed an equation that predicts when you’ll be most tired, depending on your average daily sleep and waking patterns. The equation is …

CDA + CT + KF = TMT

… where CDA is the hour of our daily dip is alertness, CT is our “chronotype” (our personal daily rhythm), and KF is a set of influencing factors such as prior sleep quality and alcohol intake. The result, TMT, is the time of day that we’re most likely to feel tired.

The web site KnackerFactor has created an online version of this algorithm, which asks you a bunch of questions and then spits out a chart showing how sleepy — or alert — you’ll be throughout the day. I punched in my stats for last night, including the following data points: I’m generally a night owl; I generally struggle out of bed; however, last night I went to bed around 11:30; I had one glass of wine with dinner; and I woke up at 7:30 am.

The result? Check the chart above. Apparently, the first couple hours of my workday were supposed to be among my most alert and productive. Reader, allow me to express just how insanely wrong was that prediction. Sure, I managed to drag myself out of bed, but I moved around the office like a snail. I am really not a morning person. Interestingly, the chart also predicts that I’m supposed to be heading into a “noticeably sleepy” zone right now — around 1 pm — but since I’m on my second bucket of coffee, I’m actually feeling quite alert and efficient!

Of course, being a total idiot, I’m spending these high-productivity hours blogging instead of doing actual, paid work.

(Thanks to The J-Walk Blog for this one!)


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I'm Clive Thompson, a writer on science, technology, and culture. This blog collects bits of offbeat research I'm running into, and musings thereon.

Currently, I'm a contributing writer for the New York Times Magazine and a columnist for Wired magazine. I also write for Fast Company and Wired magazine's web site, among other places. Email or AOL IM me (pomeranian99) to say hi or send in something strange!

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September 26, 2008 » 01:57 PM

From an interview with ethnobotanist and anthropologist Wade Davis:

One of the cultures you celebrate in Light at the Edge of the World is the Inuit. What do you most admire about them?

Davis: The Inuit didn’t fear the cold; they took advantage of it. During the 1950s the Canadian government forced the Inuit into settlements. A family from Arctic Bay told me this fantastic story of their grandfather who refused to go. The family, fearful for his life, took away all of his tools and all of his implements, thinking that would force him into the settlement. But instead, he just slipped out of an igloo on a cold Arctic night, pulled down his caribou and sealskin trousers, and defecated into his hand. As the feces began to freeze, he shaped it into the form of an implement. And when the blade started to take shape, he put a spray of saliva along the leading edge to sharpen it. That’s when what they call the “shit knife” took form. He used it to butcher a dog. Skinned the dog with it. Improvised a sled with the dog’s rib cage, and then, using the skin, he harnessed up an adjacent living dog. He put the shit knife in his belt and disappeared into the night.

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Collision Detection: A Blog by Clive Thompson